Monday, June 6, 2011

Yemeni Leader's Exit Prompts Joy and Fear

President Ali Abdullah Saleh's sudden departure to Saudi Arabia for surgery Sundayafter he was wounded in an attack threw Yemen's political landscape into disarray as protesters saw the end of his 33-year rule and rival tribes maneuvered for power.

SAN'A, Yemen—President Ali Abdullah Saleh'ssudden departure to Saudi Arabia for surgery Sunday after he was wounded in an attack threw Yemen's political landscape intodisarray as protesters saw the end of his 33-year rule and rival tribes maneuvered for power.

Mr. Saleh's supporters insisted he planned to return to his role as president after he handed power to his vice president.

Yemenis celebrated the departure of President Saleh, who went to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment. It was unclear if Mr. Saleh plannedto return.

The U.S. said it had no evidence that Mr. Salehdidn't intend to come back to rule Yemen, and urged the country to ensure any permanent transfer of power take place within the confines of the country's constitution.

During the months of protests in Yemen, American officials have been worried that a power vacuum could allow al Qaeda-linked terror groups to flourish in the country.

"Saleh out of the country is a game changer,"said April Longley Alley, a senior analyst specializing in Yemen with the International Crisis Group, an independent nonprofit group that tries to prevent and resolve deadly conflict. "It's precarious because thereis still no solid cease-fire in place [with Mr. Saleh] in order to allow a political transition to go through."

Youth opposition, which started the pro-democracy opposition movement against Mr. Saleh, celebrated in the square where protesters have been gathering for months. They danced, sang and waved flags and even slaughtered cows to give thanks, witnesses said.

Saleh, hurt in a blast inside his compound, left the country for treatment in Saudi Arabia on Saturday.

But elsewhere in the capital the mood was somber as ordinary Yemeni families braced for a period of political uncertainty and possible violence if Mr. Saleh returns and resumes fighting the opposition. Shops stayed closed and most families stayed indoors in the capital.

Vice President Abdul Rabu Mansoor Hadi, who is viewed as a conciliator who won't seek power himself, ordered a halt to all clashes in San'a on both the government andthe tribal side. The government said it would remove its forces from the areas of Hasba and Hadda, where fighting had been most intense. In response, opposition tribal leader Sheikh Sadeq Ahmar, the leader of the powerful Hashid tribe, evacuated his militia from government buildings and called an end to the fight.

Analysts say that the Hashid tribe, which fought fiercely with government security forces in the past week and was instrumental in driving Mr. Saleh out of the country, won't likely seek a direct political role in any incoming government but could be instrumental in endorsing Yemen's next leader. Tribe members could also play an important role in defusing tensions and restoring stability.

Opposition figures said Mr. Saleh's arrival in Saudi Arabia, whose leadership had been pushing him hard to step down, was a chance to move forward with a political transition laid out in the failed negotiations with Persian Gulf states. "Now he is gone and we don't need his signature, thank you very much," said Yasin Iryani, co-founder of the opposition Democratic Awakening Movement in Yemen. "We are going to move forward with our plans and by the time Salehis back he will be a private citizen."

For the West, Mr. Saleh's government has been a critical, if at times exasperating, partner in battling terrorist groups with a record of attacking the West.
With his departure, one of the thorniest issues is how Al Qaeda's extensive network in Yemen will react. Although Al Qaeda members are known to be in the few hundreds in Yemen, they have exploited the tribal and rural areas of the country to set upbases and training camps.

U.S. officials are worried that as the country descends further into disorder, groups affiliated with al Qaeda could consolidate their influence in outlying areas and have more space to operate and plan attacks on the West.

The U.S., which has backed Saudi efforts to ease Mr. Saleh from power, urged Yemenis toensure that any permanent transfer of power takes place constitutionally, a stance that the White House hopes will discourage acoup that might replace one strongman with another.

No comments:

Post a Comment