Friday, May 20, 2011

Libyan opposition stays under the radar

Almost hidden from view by a house perimeter wall and a fig tree's leafy embrace, Khaled was still palpably nervous as he began criticising Muammer Gaddafi.

He explained he had been against Libya's leader since the 1980s, seeing his reform promises as empty, but had been too afraid to protest in Tripoli during the three- month-old opposition uprising because of the strength of the security forces there. "I was scared," he said.

"I saw the television and I was terrified." Khaled and his friend Faisal– both aliases – are the kind of men who would have been out protesting every day on the streets of Tunis or in Cairo's Tahrir Square during the revolutions there but dared not do the same in Col Gaddafi's Tripoli. Dissent in the Libyan capital is still a furtive and dangerous business, mostly conducted underground to evade authorities that– for all the pressure the regime is facing from the rebellion, Nato bombing and economic sanctions– are still seen as a unchallengeable and ruthless enemy in a way their counterparts in Egypt and Tunisia were not.

Faisal, frustrated if still determined, said regime opponents who had been driven from the streets by security force violence during the uprising's early days were now resorting to minor protests, such as painting the colours of the rebel flag– red, black and green – on balloons, cats and pigeons. "Of course, it's a bad thing to do because they [the authorities] will shoot those cats and pigeons.

But this is just to tell the regime we are here." Many independent observers agree there is appreciable opposition to Col Gaddafi in Tripoli– as well as some support – but the problem is finding activism that goes beyond hasty, covert anti-regime conversations.

Twitter has buzzed for weeks with reports of armed clashes between rebels and government forces but, if they are happening, they remain masked in a city where journalists' movements are tightly controlled and soldiers let loose volleys of fire in many contexts other than combat.

Some dissenters report – and in some cases record – what they say are rebel flag drops, covert playing of the pre-Gaddafi era national anthem and fleeting protests, although none of these has been verified independently. Just as Libyan state TV has created an alternate reality of total loyalty to Col Gaddafi, so the rebels have been trying to conjure their own virtual world in which the decisive uprising against the regime is imminent.

The east Libyan-based opposition National Transitional Council announced last week that mass demonstrations would take place on Friday in mainly government-controlled western Libya, with the turnout expected to be large in Tripoli.

Yet traditional centres of anti-regime feeling, such as the Tajoura and Souk al- Jumah districts, were so quiet that visiting journalists were left wondering about possible Delphic signs of dissent– such as one man wearing an England football shirt, even though the UK is carrying out air strikes. Another opposition activist admitted that attempts on the internet to instigate a mass demonstration in Tripoli on May 17, the three-month anniversary of the uprising, had failed.

He said: "The truth is that anti-regime activity remains covert and under the radar, for fear of the vicious crackdown seen in February and March." Regime opponents say two generations of repression– which rights groups allege includes political detention and torture – have caused an internalisation of fear, particularly among the majority of the population that has known no leader other than Col Gaddafi. Regime critics say dissent tends to manifest itself in closed shops, absences from work and the mostly small turnouts at pro-regime demonstrations.

As one person who has worked for the government puts it, the mere act of staying away from a workplace where staff are expected to show fealty to the regime is enough to make a point. "Most Libyans have a dichotomy," he said. "Their professional persona differs from their natural persona." The very subtlety of the opposition shows that dissidents such as Khaled and Faisal are not yet ready to bet on the collapse of the regime. "We will succeed," insists Khaled, putting a finger to his lips as he leaves. "And when we do, please come back."

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